Exact finite-sample inference for multi-mixed fractional Brownian motion with drift

RESUMO

In this paper we study a linear drift perturbed by a superposition of $m$ independent fractional Brownian motions with known Hurst parameters and a common scale, observed at $N$ equidistant times. Inference for such models is usually asymptotic; we show that here it is exact. We derive the maximum likelihood estimators of the drift $\theta$ and of the scale $\alpha^{2}$ in closed form and obtain their exact finite-sample joint law: $\widehat\theta$ is Gaussian, $N\widehat\alpha^{\,2}/\alpha^{2}$ is chi-square with $N-1$ degrees of freedom, and the two are independent. As this law is free of every model parameter, we deduce Student and chi-square confidence intervals and tests of exact level for every $N\ge2$, whatever the Hurst vector. We also prove that the estimators are uniformly minimum variance unbiased with $\widehat\theta$ attaining the Cramér--Rao bound at every $N$, that both are strongly consistent and asymptotically normal, and that the drift estimators form, in law, a Brownian motion run along their own variance scale. A sharp non-asymptotic bound shows that the accuracy of the drift is governed by the length of the observation window and not by the mesh, and a Monte Carlo study confirms exact coverage, even at small sample sizes, and quantifies what is lost when the Hurst vector is misspecified.