Quadratic Point Estimate Method for Uncertainty Quantification with Dependent Non-Gaussian Inputs

RESUMO

As an extension of the Point Estimate Method (PEM) to evaluate probabilistic moments of quantities of interest (QoI) in general $n$-dimensional spaces, the Quadratic Point Estimate Method (QPEM) has been recently developed. This new method is defined to fully represent up to fifth-order input moments in the Gaussian space, providing general analytical expressions for sample locations and weights, without requiring any numerical optimization. The QPEM can significantly improve the estimation accuracy of the output QoI moments, in relation to PEM-based methods whose numbers of sigma points grow linearly with the problem dimension, while at the same time having an affordable and competitive computational cost up to a considerable number of dimensions. The QPEM is further enhanced in this work by enabling copula integration into the framework, which enables effective modeling of the joint input probability density function by estimating marginals and the dependence structure of the involved random variables. The validity and efficient performance of the copula-based QPEM are showcased against numerous other sampling methods in various examples considering two practical scenarios: (i) when the joint dependence structure can be inferred from data, and (ii) when only marginal distributions and correlation matrices are known.