The Generative AI Gold Rush in Theoretical and Computational Research

RESUMO

Generative AI is changing the production conditions of theoretical and computational research, but its sys tem level effects require measures that separate plat form growth, field specific divergence, and production structure. We assemble 2,080 monthly observations for twenty arXiv archives from January 2018 through Au gust 2026 and a separate pseudonymized Mathematics author panel. A regularized convex synthetic control fitted through December 2025 identifies the January August 2026 anomaly, while spatial placebos, prior year pseudo holdouts, donor refits, and alternative preperiods assess comparative robustness. Mathematics recorded 47,127 list entries, 33.5% above 2025 and 11.9% above a synthetic counterfactual of 42,113 entries. Qualified donor and preperiod designs yield 9.6% to 14.9%, and Mathematics has the largest RMSPE ratio among fifteen eligible placebo archives. Subfield growth is broad, with 29 of 30 primary math.* categories expanding. The author panel shows a marked thickening of the repeated output tail. The share of active author units produc ing at least five submissions rose from 2.45% to 3.80%, while the ten submission tail rose from 0.21% to 0.49%. These results document a new and unusually large 2026 Mathematics production regime shift. Its timing and production structure, combined with independent evi dence on AI diffusion and verifiable research tasks, are consistent with delayed diffusion and capability thresh old mechanisms. The comparative design identifies the anomaly, and separate triangulation evaluates AI related explanations. The findings locate verification, selection, and attention as central constraints for research gover nance.