Mining Meaning: Measurement Error in AI-Assisted Literature Reviews

RESUMO

Researchers increasingly use generative AI, particularly large language models (LLMs), to automate tasks across the research pipeline. We study the reliability of these tools at the reading, classification, and synthesis of large bodies of academic literature. We frame LLM-assisted literature reviews as a measurement problem, treating models as measurement systems and tracing how their errors affect downstream conclusions. As a test case, we use three different implementations of ChatGPT to identify and extract metadata from economics papers that use rainfall as an instrumental variable. We benchmark each implementation against a subset of human-labeled evaluation data, and then deploy those implementations to extract metadata from the full corpus. The LLMs perform well on binary classification, but performance deteriorates as tasks demand greater contextual interpretation. More importantly, how much researchers can rely on model outputs depends not only on the complexity of the reading task but also on the type of claims the data is asked to support. The same amount of measurement error substantially affects paper-level claims while having little effect on broader claims about the literature. Measurement error in LLM-generated data is thus most consequential at precisely the level of detail that constitutes an LLM's principal value added over human reviewers. We conclude that standard model performance metrics are informative about the quality of generated data but do not by themselves establish the credibility of downstream inference. Researchers must also evaluate whether substantive claims are robust to the measurement system used to generate the underlying data.