Regularized Estimation of Spatial Patterns

RESUMO

Global warming and the El Niño phenomenon cause various climate changes and anomalies worldwide. Recently, extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, and floods have become increasingly frequent. Researchers have studied atmospheric dynamics to reduce potential damage and increase safety. Statistical methods such as principal component analysis and maximum covariance analysis have been widely used to analyze spatial patterns of atmospheric variables. However, when the signal-to-noise ratio is low, the patterns obtained from these methods are often too noisy to be physically meaningful. This dissertation proposes regularization methods that simultaneously incorporate smoothness and sparseness penalties to estimate spatial patterns more interpretably. The proposed methods, called SpatPCA and SpatMCA, can be applied to both regularly and irregularly spaced data. An efficient algorithm based on the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) is developed for computation. Through analysis of sea surface temperature data in the Indian Ocean and precipitation data in East Africa, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods in revealing the spatial structure and studying how temperature variations in the Indian Ocean influence precipitation in East Africa.