Topological Uncertainty and Higher-Order Interactions in Spatial Networks

RESUMO

Environmental systems are characterized by complex spatial interactions that cannot be fully described through pairwise relationships or local uncertainty measures. We propose a unified framework combining higher-order information theory and topological data analysis to characterize the organization and uncertainty of environmental networks. Spatial entities, represented by monitoring stations or municipalities, are embedded into a Delaunay simplicial complex, and O-information is used to quantify redundancy and synergy among neighboring triplets. The resulting field of higher-order interactions is analyzed through persistent homology, enabling the identification of topological structures that remain stable across interaction scales. The methodology is applied to both an air-quality monitoring network based on weekly \(\mathrm{NO_2}\) and \(\mathrm{O_3}\) observations and a multi-hazard territorial assessment. We show that regions exhibiting strong O-information and persistent topological structures correspond to robust environmental patterns, whereas areas characterized by heterogeneous regimes and rapidly varying interactions display increased uncertainty. Building on these results, we introduce a topological uncertainty framework that integrates simplex divergence, higher-order interactions, and topological uncertainty. Our results demonstrate that uncertainty can be interpreted not only as statistical variability but also as the instability of the underlying information topology. By integrating O-information and persistent homology within a common spatial framework, the proposed approach provides a new methodology for detecting robust higher-order structures and topologically uncertain regions in environmental and multi-hazard systems.