Research on the Price Prediction Algorithms of Major Cryptocurrencies and a Basic Transaction Framework

RESUMO

Through long-term observation and time series analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum, we found the similarity in long-term consistent price trends, especially in the weekly K-line. We denoised and smoothed the historical data of their prices, and further derived the periodicity of their price change trends and the timing of buying and selling. We have for the first time proposed that the full application of central bank digital currencies (CBDC) is a key signal for investors to reduce their holdings of cryptocurrencies or even exit the market. In addition, we proposed momentum opening/closing prices to replace the traditional nominal opening/closing prices to accurately describe the price trends of the 24/7 financial trading market. We found that the cryptocurrency market can be regarded as a relatively independent financial market, thereby designing a safer and more efficient arbitrage strategy.