Toward a Time-Aware Assessment Framework for the Carbon Cost of AI-Enabled Decarbonization

RESUMO

AI is increasingly used to support decarbonization decisions across the built environment, yet the development, training, and use of AI consume energy and induce CO2e emissions. However, existing assessments often report physical-system savings while omitting AI-side emissions. Moreover, they rarely account for the mismatch between when AI costs occur and when decarbonization benefits materialize, which may be substantial for infrastructure-scale projects. To address these issues, we present a time-aware assessment framework that models avoided emissions and AI-induced emissions as discrete-time streams over a finite time horizon. In demonstrating this process, we seek to show that time-aware assessment can support temporal decision-making, identify cases in which accounting for time value of carbon can change preferred rankings relative to time-invariant totals, and explore how decisions may vary with slightly different governance priorities. Using four representative interventions with intentionally different temporal profiles (multi-project low-carbon concrete design support, AI-assisted construction logistics, agentic HVAC control, and predictive maintenance), we demonstrate how discounting can change preferred rankings relative to time-invariant totals and supports ranking sensitivity analysis, discounted payback screening, and break-even discount-rate analysis. We also provide decision guidelines that support go/no-go screening, timing decisions, and minimum "bang-for-your-buck" thresholds. Ultimately, this work contributes a lightweight framework for deciding whether and when to deploy AI-enabled interventions for decarbonization under explicit time preference.