On the Optimal Co-location of Data Centers with Renewable Energy Sources in SIDS

RESUMO

The rapid expansion of data centers presents both economic opportunities and systemic risks for Caribbean Small Island Developing States~(SIDS). This paper develops a PyPSA-based capacity expansion framework for optimal co-location of data centers with renewable energy infrastructure, incorporating behind-the-meter battery storage, workload flexibility (70\%/30\% inflexible/flexible split), and multi-bus transmission topology. Two case studies are examined: Trinidad~\&~Tobago (single-bus, 92\,MW Brechin Castle solar, 5\,MW data center) and Jamaica (4-bus 138\,kV JPS network, 15\,MW data center at Kingston). Jamaica's optimum deploys 405\,MW solar, 278\,MW wind, 800\,MWh grid-scale BESS, and 84\,MWh behind-the-meter BESS, achieving 42.5\% renewable penetration; Trinidad's gas-anchored optimum builds no new RE, and a sensitivity analysis shows solar entering at gas costs above \$65--70/MWh, a carbon price of \$25--50/tCO$_2$, or solar CAPEX of \$800/kW. A post-hoc distributionally robust stress test evaluates hurricane resilience, and a novel 10-factor siting framework addresses the regulatory gap in SIDS that lack data-center-specific zoning. Results show that energy-optimal locations may score poorly on societal criteria---noise, freshwater stress, zoning readiness. This demonstrates the need for integrated planning tools in small island contexts.