Spectral Dynamics of DeepWalk Embeddings for Dynamic Network Change-Point Detection

RESUMO

Dynamic networks describe evolving relational systems in which abrupt structural changes may signal anomalous events or important transitions. Detecting such changes requires distinguishing genuine structural signals from fluctuations in network observations and learned representations. We propose a DeepWalk-based framework for detecting and localizing structural changes in dynamic networks. For each snapshot, we learn low-dimensional node embeddings, align them to a fixed reference using orthogonal Procrustes transformations, and aggregate them by mean pooling into comparable graph-level vectors. We then construct a multivariate cumulative sum (CUSUM) scan statistic to identify changes in the embedding mean. Under stated regularity conditions, we derive bounds on stochastic fluctuations under the null hypothesis and sufficient conditions for reliable detection and consistent localization under the alternative. The analysis connects detection performance with network sparsity, spectral separation, embedding dimension, and change magnitude, clarifying the balance between structural signals and representation variability. Simulation studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in detecting and localizing structural changes across a range of dynamic network settings. An application to an international trade network further illustrates its practical usefulness in identifying shifts in trade allocation.