Who Judges Matters: Measuring Family-Conditioned Preference in LLM-as-Judge Panels

RESUMO

Who the judge is can affect an LLM-as-judge result, but measuring that effect without confusing it with candidate quality is difficult. We study four open-weight families (Llama 3.1, Qwen 2.5, Gemma 2, and Yi 1.5) in a fully crossed pairwise design with 9,312 judgments. A common per-family statistic is strongly confounded with candidate quality and correlates with Bradley-Terry ability at r = 0.95. We derive a corrected estimator that holds the candidate family fixed and compares judges. All four families then show a positive same-family lift (3.4-8.4 percentage points), with global FPS 0.067 (95% CI [0.053, 0.084], permutation p = 0.0002). The effect remains under panel-based quality controls, an independent human-consensus anchor, and a float16 judging replication. Judge-side likelihood is closely related to the effect: adding likelihood advantage reduces the controlled coefficient by 61%, which we treat as descriptive attenuation rather than causal mediation. Position is a separate failure mode. Across the panel, 55.4% of AB/BA pairs reverse, and reversal above 50% is incompatible with a simple independent content-noise model. Relative to a family-balanced reference, panel composition changes 18.5% of pairwise outcomes. A complete reproducibility archive has been prepared for public release.