Mapping AI Economic Complexity

RESUMO

Green economic complexity provides a generalizable framework for examining countries' productive capabilities in a defined product set. We apply this framework to AI-enabling goods within the full product space, linking current specialization with adjacent diversification opportunities. Using BACI exports for 2007-2023 and 103 AI-enabling goods, we measure complexity-weighted specialization (AECI), product-level adjacent opportunities (AIAP), and average complexity-weighted relatedness of remaining candidates (AECP). In 2023, Japan leads AECI, while China leads AECP; portfolio breadth accounts for much of the variation in raw AECI. Initial raw potential is positively associated with subsequent changes in the AI-enabling export share, but its associations with changes in AECI and specialization counts are not statistically significant at the 5% level. Our contribution is a trade-based assessment of AI-enabling productive capabilities and related opportunities. The results and public dashboard provide a preliminary complement to publication and patent indicators, not a comprehensive measure of national AI performance or a validated forecast of diversification.