AsyncCouple-Flow: Asynchronous Cross-Modal Coupling and Flow Matching for Spatio-Temporal Forecasting

RESUMO

Multi-modal spatio-temporal forecasting (MM-STF) supports weather nowcasting, traffic prediction, and earth-system modeling by combining heterogeneous sources such as physical fields, satellite imagery, and in-situ sensors. Three obstacles persist: (i) modalities have different spatio-temporal sampling rates, forcing lossy interpolation onto a unified grid; (ii) modalities are frequently missing at deployment due to sensor outages or revisit gaps, while most methods train with full availability; and (iii) autoregressive decoders accumulate errors over long horizons, amplified by multi-modal conditioning. We propose AsyncCouple-Flow to address these issues jointly. A Modality-Aware Token Sparsification (MATS) module performs scale-aware tokenization and uses a shared importance scorer to select top-k tokens per timestep, producing equal-length sequences. An Asynchronous Cross-Modal Coupling Graph (ACCG) replaces fixed cross-attention with a learnable graph whose edges encode time offsets, semantic similarity, and modality-specific physical priors, enabling fusion under arbitrary asynchrony and missingness. A Flow-Matching Forecasting Head models multi-step prediction as a conditional ODE, trained with stochastic modality dropout and integrated jointly to avoid autoregressive drift. Experiments on ERA5+GOES+ISD weather forecasting and PEMS-BAY traffic prediction with multi-source side information show that AsyncCouple-Flow outperforms state-of-the-art baselines and remains robust with up to two missing modalities. The code will be released upon acceptance.