Statistical Inference for Bivariate Functional Causal Discovery

RESUMO

Causal discovery methods aim to determine the causal direction between variables using observational data. Functional causal discovery methods rely on structural and distributional assumptions to determine directionality but typically lack statistical inference. This paper reviews the statistical guarantees of existing functional causal discovery methods in theory, software, and applied use, highlighting a key gap: the absence of a unified inferential framework that applies broadly across model classes. As a first step toward addressing this gap, we formalize a test-based approach for bivariate causal discovery by repurposing goodness-of-fit and independence tests within a hypothesis-testing framework. Because directionality is determined through two disjoint hypothesis tests, corresponding to four causal discovery outcomes, the approach provides explicit uncertainty quantification and diagnostic insight into assumption violations. Resampling is further used to estimate the rates of causal discovery outcomes, offering an additional layer of inference. We demonstrate the use and behavior of our inferential framework through simulations that vary the degree of assumption violation, as well as through real-data applications. We conclude with practical lessons and recommendations for advancing statistical guarantees in functional causal discovery.