A Multiplicative Loss Function for Chain Ladder

RESUMO

Reserving models increasingly rely on loss-based estimation, where the loss function encodes the assumed error structure. Mack demonstrated this for the chain ladder, showing that the volume-weighted average estimator minimises a volume-weighted squared-error loss function that is additive in successive claim developments. This paper instead considers a multiplicative error structure and proposes the corresponding volume-weighted squared log-error loss function. Adapting Mack's distribution-free framework, we show that this loss function is minimised by the volume-weighted geometric average of the individual development ratios. This provides practitioners with an alternative estimator of development ratios for chain-ladder-based models, and a candidate loss function for machine-learning-based reserving models. We further show that the same estimator arises from two independent arguments: a stability requirement on successive ultimate loss projections, and maximum-likelihood estimation under a log-normal model. The estimator thus admits three complementary justifications: loss minimisation, reserve stability, and parametric likelihood. An out-of-sample study of 362 Schedule P company-line datasets supports the use of the proposed estimator in place of the volume-weighted average for the chain ladder, by showing that it improves predictive accuracy and reduces a slight over-prediction bias.