Global Poverty Beyond the Official Line: A bounded estimate of material insufficiency

RESUMO

Numbers this large invite a defensive reflex: reach for the reassuring figure and move on. By the most widely cited measure, the World Bank's extreme-poverty line of \$3.00 per day (2021 PPP), approximately 847 million people, or 10.4% of the world's population, lived in poverty in 2024. That figure is accurate as measured. It is also, by design, a floor: a threshold built to mark bare survival in the poorest economies, not to describe what it takes for a family anywhere to live with basic security. The central argument of this report is that the reassurance offered by that single line is largely an artifact of how we chose to measure. Held to the \$3.00 floor, roughly 847 million people are poor; held to the standards of their own societies, the number is several times larger, and even the most cautious, honest count exceeds a billion. Measured against income standards appropriate to each country's level of development, some 3.7 billion people fall below the World Bank's \$8.30/day upper-middle-income reference line, roughly 1.1 billion are multidimensionally poor, and around 2.3 billion are food insecure. These are not competing errors but answers to different questions. This report does not dispute the official data. It takes those figures as accurate and asks what they do and do not capture. It disaggregates by geography, age, and gender and supplements the monetary count with multidimensional measures of food security, working poverty, social protection, and relative poverty. It also documents a data-quality problem that runs in one direction: survey coverage is weaker in regions with the worst poverty, so official figures are far likelier to understate deprivation than to overstate it.