A Latent Oscillator Measurement Model to Simulate Emotional-Expression Score Dynamics in Video

RESUMO

Facial-expression classifiers convert video into multivariate time series of scores with measurement error from classifiers, videos, and recording conditions. Empirical score series cannot establish whether the score channels reflect a smaller set of latent expressive processes or whether an analysis would recover those processes. We introduce the Latent Oscillator Measurement Model (LOMM), a data-generating model that separates latent dynamics, time-varying activity, and a factor-analytic observation model. The latent processes are damped, undamped, or amplifying linear oscillators. LOMM generates bounded scores or continuous indicators. Study 1 used four-fold cross-fitting with scores from 100 MAFW videos to calibrate LOMM and evaluate generated series on held-out videos. Median plausibility and coverage were 0.970 and 0.920 for LOMM, versus 0.510 and 0.370 for a calibrated static logistic-normal generator. Study 2 tested whether Dynamic Exploratory Graph Analysis (DynEGA), static EGA, GraphicalVAR, and GIMME recovered a known dimensional structure from continuous indicators generated by LOMM. At 100 observations per clip, with failed or timed-out fits counted as incorrect, correct-dimension recovery was 0.939 for DynEGA, 0.884 for static EGA, 0.777 for GraphicalVAR, and 0.176 for GIMME. Replacing the common fixed initialization with independent stationary starts for stable dimensions and bounded independent starts for amplifying dimensions reduced recovery for DynEGA, static EGA, and GraphicalVAR. LOMM provides a controlled test of whether an analysis recovers aspecified latent structure before score patterns are interpreted psychologically.