Has Scientific Talent Shifted from Depth to Breadth?Evidence across Papers, Knowledge Inputs, Careers, and Teams

RESUMO

Generative artificial intelligence raises a central question for scientific training and organization. Is research shifting from deep specialization toward broad individual knowledge? We examine this proposition across papers, cited knowledge, contributor histories, and teams using 47,959 articles from six fields over 2010-2025, 51,736 resolved cited works, and chronologically reconstructed prior publication histories for 1,754 randomly selected index contributors. From 2010 to 2022, team size increased by an estimated 37.3% (95% confidence interval [34.4%, 40.3%]), while paper topic breadth declined by 0.0144 on a 0-1 hierarchical distance scale. Cited knowledge was stable to modestly broader, revealing a divergence between focused outputs and the reach of knowledge inputs. Established contributors' prior breadth increased by 0.0190 [-0.0078, 0.0459] by 2019-2022, within a +/-0.05 equivalence bound assessed in sensitivity analysis. In mature citation windows, one standard deviation of focal depth was associated with 8.2% higher 1 + FWCI [1.9%, 14.9%]; average breadth and interaction associations were smaller under the specified equivalence bounds. Post-2022 deviations from earlier trends were not systematic, and recent changes did not vary clearly with baseline AI intensity across 83 subfields. The findings support a differentiated structure of scientific expertise in which focused individual accumulation coexists with expanding collaboration and sustained access to diverse knowledge inputs.