Real-World Deployment and Performance Characterisation of Fog-Based Deep Learning for Cold-Chain Temperature Prediction over LoRaWAN

RESUMO

Fresh fruits and vegetables (FFVs) are highly perishable, and cold-chain breaks contribute significantly to global food waste. While Machine Learning (ML) can enable proactive intervention, cloud-based inference faces challenges such as latency and data loss. Fog computing addresses these issues but has been tested only in simulation for FFV cold-chain temperature prediction. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this paper presents its first real-world deployment. A fog-deployed LSTM-GRU model predicted cold-room temperature using LoRaWAN sensor data collected from a South African apple cold-storage facility with induced cold-chain breaks. Running entirely on a Raspberry Pi 4 with no cloud dependency, the system generated conditional SHAP explanations only when a break is predicted. The deployed system predicts cold-room temperature with an MAE of 0.2°C at roughly 0.2 kWh per day ($\approx 0.7$ Wh per prediction). Predictions were delivered in under one second (555 ms), dominated by network and messaging rather than computation, with conditional explanations adding modest cost. SHAP consumes 28% more CPU but is well within the hardware's capacity. The model attributes its predictions primarily to temperature, humidity, and their interaction. Critically, the deployment surfaced what simulation cannot: a sensor-triggered single point of failure, alongside genuine resilience, autonomous recovery from infrastructure faults and continued operation through internet loss. These are the first published deployment benchmarks for fog-based temperature prediction in FFV cold chains, establishing that explainable temperature forecasting is feasible on resource-constrained edge hardware. Future work includes asynchronous sensor fusion, commercial cold chain deployment, alternative model architectures, and causal analysis.