The Loud Tail of the Supermassive Black Hole Binary Population: Multimessenger Candidates and Prospects for SKAO

RESUMO

We assess whether electromagnetically identified supermassive black hole (SMBH) binary candidates populate the rare, high-amplitude tail of the gravitational wave (GW) amplitude distribution. Using an SMBH binary population model fitted to the NANOGrav 15-year data, we find that 3C~66B and Mrk~501 are likely to stand out from the GW background, making them promising targets for individual-source searches. Furthermore, we show that individual detections can probe the binary hardening mechanism, as models with strong environmental hardening predict a higher abundance of individually resolvable binaries than purely GW-driven models. Applying the same population fits and accounting for the confusion noise from the unresolved population, we forecast that the Square Kilometre Array Observatory (SKAO) will resolve tens of individual binaries, with 3C~66B robustly detectable.