Learning-Augmented Optimization for Strategic Two-Echelon Spare Parts Network Design

RESUMO

We study the strategic design of a two-echelon spare-parts inventory network where evaluating each candidate topology requires an expensive inventory optimization model. The design partitions hundreds of sites into feasible clusters and selects a central replenishment site for each cluster to reduce costs while maintaining service levels. Because the optimizer favors candidates with high predicted savings, it can exploit optimistic surrogate errors. We develop a conservative framework combining a graph neural network ensemble, variable neighborhood search, and set-partitioning recombination. The surrogate is trained on exact cluster evaluations, while a lower quantile of ensemble-predicted savings guides the search to limit optimism. Clusters found during the search are recombined through set partitioning using surrogate-based objective coefficients. The resulting network is evaluated with the exact inventory model, and only this evaluation is used to report performance. In a case study of 246 fulfillment centers in Amazon's North American network, the framework improves combined savings by 30.5% over an optimization baseline based entirely on exact cluster evaluations, while maintaining approximately 99.8% service across six independent replications. Under equal computational budgets, graph-surrogate-guided search achieves higher mean exact savings than a tabular alternative under both scoring schemes. Conservative scoring improves mean savings for both surrogate classes and reduces the share of final-network clusters overestimated by the graph surrogate from 68% to 28%. Predictive and ranking accuracy deteriorate among search-generated candidates with high surrogate scores, indicating that random holdout performance can incompletely characterize surrogate quality during optimization.