A Framework for Evaluating Forward Contamination Risk for Bio-ISRU Microorganisms

RESUMO

NASA planetary protection policy seeks to avoid inadvertent forward contamination of celestial bodies and backward contamination of Earth during space exploration. For Mars missions, it has historically focused on sterilization of landers and rovers. Current policy provides no framework for assessing the forward contamination risk of missions that deliberately include living organisms and must not be sterilized, such as a human crew, agriculture, or biotechnology for manufacturing and life support. We propose the PRIM (Propagation Restricted, Inert on Mars) framework to evaluate the forward-contamination risk posed by known organisms. Building on the biocontainment literature and probability-of-contamination model, PRIM bounds the ability of an organism released from a worst-case off-nominal event to sustain growth on the Martian surface at a probability under P_c <= 10^-4 using independent single-stressor propagation assays. We apply the PRIM framework to two engineered Mars biological in situ resource utilization (bio-ISRU) chassis organisms, using low water activity and carbon starvation to qualify them for low forward contamination risk even at high bioburden, and outline how to extend the assays to phototrophs and anaerobes. PRIM offers a path to flight-qualify living organisms for Mars based on laboratory assays rather than bioburden alone. This enables biological life support infrastructure for a sustained presence on Mars while keeping forward contamination risk demonstrably low.