Robust POMDP Framework for Lung Cancer Screening Problems

RESUMO

Lung cancer remains a leading cause of cancer mortality because many cases are diagnosed at advanced stages. Low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening can reduce mortality through earlier detection. Partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) models can personalize screening by maintaining a belief over an individual's latent cancer state. However, cancer-state transition probabilities are often generated from clinical simulations and are subject to estimation error and model misspecification. We propose a robust POMDP framework using $\ell_1$-norm ambiguity sets around the nominal transition probability. The model optimizes screening decisions against the worst-case transition probability while keeping other components fixed at nominal values. Building on the piecewise-linear and convex structure of the robust value function, we adapt point-based value iteration to compute robust screening policies. We evaluate the policies using out-of-sample simulations that perturb selected cancer-progression parameters and compare them with the nominal ENGAGE policy for representative female and male heavy-smoker cohorts at age 50. Robust POMDP policies generally outperform nominal ENGAGE in mean out-of-sample quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), with the best performance at a moderate ambiguity radius within the tested grid. Clinical analysis shows that the robust policy reduces lung cancer deaths (LCDs) in all evaluated settings for the female cohort and in most settings for the male cohort, with additional false positives (FPs). Screening-schedule analysis shows that the robust policy recommends more LDCT screens and detects more early-stage lung cancers. These findings show that incorporating transition-model uncertainty into data-driven screening models can improve out-of-sample reliability and provide more robust decision support when clinical simulation inputs are misspecified.