Climate-model factor separation with Shapley values and efficient sampling

RESUMO

Climate models often feature nonlinear responses to changes in model parameters or boundary conditions. Factor separation asks how much of the resulting change should be assigned to altered factors and their interactions. Lunt et al. (2010) showed that two factor attribution methods, the \emph{linear-sum} and \emph{shared-interaction} methods, coincide for $n\le 4$ factors and conjectured this holds for arbitrary $n$. We show that the linear-sum and shared-interaction formulas are respectively the permutation and Harsanyi-dividend representations of the Shapley value. Their equality therefore follows from a classical theorem in cooperative game theory. To our knowledge, this is the first explicit identification of the Stein--Alpert and Lunt climate-model factor-separation methods with Möbius/Harsanyi coefficients and Shapley values. The result imports many established and efficient Shapley sampling methods into climate-model experimental design, and extends to vector-valued responses.