Conformal Margins for Electrical Transmission Capacity Under Fixed Balancing Policies

RESUMO

This article presents a data-driven approach to minimally adjust forecast-based steady-state generation dispatch in electrical transmission networks. The goal is to manage congestion caused by uncertainty in demand and renewable generation under a fixed automatic generation control (AGC) policy operating without saturation. Under this policy, we first show that the post-AGC residual injection distribution is invariant to the scheduled generation dispatch. This result separates line loading into a dispatch-dependent baseline and an uncertainty-induced residual component. Using historical forecast errors, we then apply split conformal prediction to construct transmission-line margins with distribution-free, finite-sample linewise or joint coverage guarantees. We also calibrate the aggregate pre-AGC mismatch to determine the generation headroom required for the prescribed AGC response. We incorporate these calibrated quantities into a convex secure re-dispatch problem that minimally adjusts the nominal schedule while reserving sufficient transmission capacity and AGC headroom. The resulting corrected dispatch provides finite-sample probabilistic guarantees on per-line security and unsaturated AGC operation. Case studies on the RTS-GMLC system demonstrate substantial reductions in out-of-sample line-limit violations with modest operating-cost increases.