Assessing flood-conditioned power dependency of urban rail transit and its effects on resilience under climate change

RESUMO

Urban rail transit (URT) faces increasing flood risk while relying on traction power systems whose failures can trigger cascading disruption. Existing studies on URT flood resilience often oversimplify power dependency by overlooking traction power redundancy and rarely consider flood-conditioned cascading impacts, providing limited insight into how flood-induced traction power failures propagate through operations and affect system resilience. This study marks the first quantitative assessment of flood-conditioned power dependency of URT and its effects on system resilience. The methodology integrates a double-layer URT network model, spatial flood exposure assessment, service disruption simulation, a flood-conditioned power dependency index, and a journey-based performance metric that captures resilience properties of robustness and redundancy. It is applied to the London rail transit network under surface water flood scenarios across current and RCP8.5 climate conditions, two traction power feeding mechanisms, and four substation flood-failure thresholds. Results show that traction power redundancy fundamentally shapes the severity of cascading impacts. Under double-end feeding, power-attributable performance loss remains minimal, whereas single-end feeding leads to substantially greater loss and is highly sensitive to substation failure thresholds. The proposed dependency index is strongly correlated with dependency-related performance loss, supporting its use as a proxy for dependency-induced additional consequences in strategic planning.