Cost-Aware Post-Hoc Deferral Under Calibration and Shift: An Environmental AI Case Study

RESUMO

Choosing a deferral policy for a frozen classifier requires more than ranking uncertain cases: confidence may be miscalibrated, errors have unequal costs, reviewers can err, and deployment data can leave calibration support. We study these interactions through EcoTrust, a post-hoc framework that compares automatic action with review using a six-group error-risk estimator, class-asymmetric costs, reviewer accuracy, and an optional support gate. On a Columbia River thermal-stress testbed, the learned estimator improves error-ranking area under the receiver operating characteristic curve from 0.869 to 0.889, but Chow's confidence rule has lower in-distribution cost (0.416 versus 0.567 per day). Across 12 off-the-shelf backends, learned risk and a calibration-matched, class-aware confidence estimator each beat raw Chow on six; a paired year-block bootstrap does not resolve their mean cost difference. In transfer to ten river stations, the gate flags every case and becomes an always-review fallback, attaining the lowest cost on eight stations only when review is perfect and unconstrained. These results characterize decision boundaries on one controlled task: richer risk signals do not reliably improve on calibrated confidence, and detected extrapolation does not imply transferable case-level ranking.