Metatheoretical multiverse analysis: Improving the reliability of research with theories-as-data

RESUMO

Here we present a method for measuring, analyzing and reducing theoretical uncertainty. We call it metatheoretical multiverse analysis (MMA). The method is important because the reliability and replicability of scientific observation and testing of a phenomenon are a function of theoretical uncertainty thus reducing it is a method for improving theory. The MMA method requires encoding theory as propositional logic between variables (nodes) and their relationships with one another (edges). Propositional logic models are treated as causal path models in our method, which enable mathematical properties of testing and identification underlying their causal propositions. By encoding theories-as-data including their unknown components, it is possible to generate a multiverse of alternatively plausible theoretical models which can then be meta-analyzed using techniques borrowed from (statistical) multiverse analysis. We introduce metrics for studying theoretical multiverses that enable measuring and identifying the causes of metatheoretical uncertainty. This guides researchers to where it is best to invest theoretical development to reduce uncertainty. We use three simulations and a dedicated software package to demonstrate this method.