Dynamic Latent Space Modeling of Inhomogeneous Poisson Network Processes with Applications to International Relations

RESUMO

We study continuous-time relational event data, where time-stamped dyadic interactions reflect both individual node propensities and evolving relational proximity. We propose a dynamic latent space model for inhomogeneous Poisson processes, where event intensities depend on node-specific activity parameters and time-varying latent distances modeled via flexible B-splines. We prove model identifiability by decoupling baseline activity from latent position, ensuring high interaction volumes do not warp the spatial map. For scalability, we develop a minibatch stochastic gradient algorithm with stable initialization and geometric anchoring, alongside an effective-degrees-of-freedom BIC for tuning model complexity. Simulations confirm accurate parameter recovery and out-of-sample prediction. Applied to cooperative diplomatic events among 60 major economies (1995--2022), the model uncovers shifting patterns of international cooperation and isolates mobile geopolitical actors from stationary institutional anchors.