Do Reviewers Still Reward Lexical Complexity? A Frozen-Rater Study of Preference Drift in 124K ICLR Reviews

RESUMO

Large language models have collapsed the cost of producing lexically elaborate prose, and whether peer reviewers still reward it is a question about the evaluator, not about the text. When the association between a writing cue and review scores moves across years, the reviewers may have changed, the submissions may have changed, or both, and a regression of scores on text cannot say which. We separate the two with a frozen rater: 81,850 machine reviews of ICLR submissions from 2018 to 2025, all generated in one February-April 2025 window with one model family and one prompt, so that its year-to-year coefficients track submission composition alone and the human-minus-frozen trend difference identifies reviewer preference drift. On 32,638 submissions with 124,615 human reviews, the human coefficient on non-domain lexical complexity falls from +0.142 to -0.015 while the frozen rater moves from +0.080 to +0.082; the three-way difference-in-differences is -0.0100 (q=0.013), and forty random-wordlist placebos through the same specification centre on zero. Humans still reward sentence-length variability, which the frozen rater never registers, while the frozen rater still pays for lexical complexity at its earlier rate. Every claim is held to a double gate of false-discovery control and interval exclusion, and the findings that failed adversarial re-testing are reported. Reviewers discounted a cue whose production cost collapsed, as models of manipulable signals prescribe; an LLM judge calibrated to historical human preferences inherits the earlier schedule and drifts out of alignment while its agreement with humans on totals stays ordinary.