Two-resolution state modelling of intermittent online gambling activity during Sweden's temporary deposit-cap period

RESUMO

Intermittent online gambling records create two distinct representation problems: calendar-time analyses must retain represented days with no recorded play, whereas analyses of active behaviour must preserve variation within active episodes. We pair calendar-time and active-bout models in a two-resolution analysis of 14.2 million player-days from a single operator during 2019-2023. The calendar-time layer retains assignable represented days in five observed categories and propagates a pre-period reference. The active-episode layer fits a Bayesian mixed-emission hidden semi-Markov model to turnover, playing time, approved deposits and session counts. In the reference four-regime fit, two regimes share a rounded model-implied turnover median of 153.5 EUR, while their model-implied playing-time and approved-deposit medians differ by factors of 4.6 and 5.7, respectively, and their expected total session counts by a factor of 2.8. This separation remains under an ordinary hidden Markov model, two routing perturbations and a residual-dependence sensitivity; the tested turnover-only fits were diagnostically unstable. Over the temporary Swedish deposit-cap period, deposits and turnover per represented player-day were roughly 55% below the propagated reference and active-category occupancy was 7.8% lower. The largest negative deviations in a prespecified Sweden-assigned cohort occurred among high pre-policy deposit-intensity customers. These are operator-specific descriptive comparisons, not causal policy effects.