PAPER / ARXIV:2609.07019
Maximilian Topel
RESUMO
Laws from physics to social science rest on a small, enumerable number of factors explaining variation in the systems they describe. While the orthodoxy of economics, physics and chemistry relies on a small number of analytically interpretable laws, large data models pursuing universality throw in all available data. Both fail in their extremes through the same flaw, an incorrect basis: too few orthogonal variables to describe system variation, or an explosion of dimensionality around fundamentally low dimensional but unknown dynamics. We propose and validate a framework that extracts an interpretable, mathematically sound, low dimensional and dynamically informed basis directly from arbitrary timeseries. Combining Takens' Delay Embedding Theorem, dimensionality reduction and optimal transport, we produce a phase space of phase spaces (PSoPS) on which all interrelated dynamical series exist: barycenters formed from many phase spaces, together with the families of transport plans between individual phase spaces and the barycenter, yield a basis describing the relational geometry of each timeseries and the topology of economic relationships. The macroeconomic PSoPS built from 281,536 series is a single connected object of effective dimension 7.3 +/- 0.2, into which the canonical laws (Phillips, Okun, Solow) embed as roughly 2-dimensional looped sub-attractors. The coupling between concept barycenters is directed, with the price of money and productivity as net sources and credit and output as sinks, recovering monetary transmission from geometry alone. IAAFT phase-randomized surrogates destroy 36-43% of the dimension across the three laws and 38% on the full corpus, so the basis is irreducibly nonlinear. We close with proposed extensions to fields whose dynamics share attractor geometries and to systems that are intrinsically low dimensional yet hard to navigate in raw coordinates.
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