Reliability Value of Long-Duration Energy Storage against Extreme Events in High-Renewable Grids: A Full-Year AC-OPF Assessment

RESUMO

Long-duration energy storage (LDES) can mitigate prolonged renewable--load imbalances during Dunkelflaute events, but existing studies rely on zonal or linearized DC network models and inadequately analyze the operational feasibility of the grid across a wide range of full-year renewable, load, and contingency scenarios. To address this gap, this paper introduces a multi-period alternating-current optimal power flow (AC-OPF) formulation that captures the full nonlinear network physics and assesses the reliability value of LDES in high-renewable grids. To evaluate scarcity events spanning multiple days to weeks, full-year operation is modeled as an 8,760-h load-shedding minimization over scenarios sampled from a Gaussian copula model, fitted to 2010--2025 historical wind and bus-level load data, that represents both typical variability and tail events. On a synthetic 200-bus Illinois transmission network, a hybrid fleet of battery energy storage (BESS) and LDES with 50 MW total power reduces annual load shedding by 83.0% on average relative to the base network, versus 68.5% for short-duration BESS alone at equal power. To further account for unexpected line outages throughout the year, the formulation is extended to a multi-day security-constrained AC-OPF. Under N-1contingencies, no feasible operating solution is obtained for the base network, whereas the LDES-equipped network remains feasible in all considered cases, thereby saving the cost of additional generation and transmission capacity. During the contingency period, LDES acts as a backup power supply, requiring only 5.5% more generation on average than the no-contingency base case.