Modeling Medea gene-drive population replacement: thresholds and release strategies

RESUMO

Mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue, Zika, and yellow fever impose a substantial global health burden, motivating genetic control strategies that replace wild mosquito populations with disease-refractory ones. Maternal-effect dominant embryonic arrest (Medea) is a gene drive in which the offspring of a Medea-carrying mother die unless they inherit the Medea allele, producing biased inheritance capable of driving a linked refractory trait to high prevalence. We develop and analyze a continuous-time compartmental model of Medea dynamics in Aedes aegypti that tracks mosquito abundance by life stage and genotype, and that generalizes the drive mechanism to allow both imperfect Medea-killing and imperfect rescue. We characterize the biologically relevant equilibria and derive their local stability conditions, together with genotype-specific reproduction numbers and the basic reproduction number (R0) governing invasion from low frequency. Bifurcation analysis reveals bistability, and hence a release threshold that must be exceeded for Medea to take over, even though R0<1 at baseline. Imperfect killing and imperfect rescue reshape this bifurcation structure in distinct ways: killing leakage governs the invasion threshold, while rescue efficiency governs the composition of the resulting population. Sensitivity analysis identifies the fitness coefficient and killing leakage as the dominant drivers of both threshold and coverage outcomes, with mosquito demographic parameters affecting absolute abundances but not genotype proportions. Simulations of batched release programs inform efficient field deployment and show that reversing an established drive is substantially more costly than achieving forward invasion, though co-releasing both sexes accelerates reversal considerably more than it accelerates invasion.