Global minimax risk and acquisition laws for heterogeneous information fusion

RESUMO

We prove an all-allocation global target-risk theorem for independent Gaussian sources that share a scalar nuisance and an unknown contact coordinate. For a fixed immersed nuisance curve with finitely many multiple fibres and pairwise nonparallel branch tangents, squared target risk is comparable to a primary estimation floor plus a target-gap-weighted Gaussian discrimination profile. Independent localization, finite branch selection and target-class refitting give an estimator attaining this comparison across every nonnegative integer allocation. A full-box specialization has positive-definite primary Fisher information everywhere and globally identifies its target, yet models with identical derivatives of every order along a critical hypersurface have different polynomial risk exponents. We construct a finite certified estimator and quantify the numerical accuracy needed to preserve rare branch decisions and acquisition windows. A polynomial tangency family both demonstrates the geometric boundary and quantifies its repair: known auxiliary gain, source contact order and target vanishing order determine a risk law uniform through zero gain. For a shared spherical direction, a separately proved composite-testing result transfers through an unknown contact coordinate using only counted observations. These theorems distinguish the resources needed for local estimation, discrimination between parameter regions and nuisance alignment, and yield acquisition thresholds under explicit scalar-observation costs.