Reliability, validity, and diagnostic evidence for multi-model LLM short-answer scoring

RESUMO

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used or proposed for educational scoring, but single-model and single-run evaluations provide limited evidence for assessment use. Short-answer scoring requires evidence about reliability, validity, severity, diagnostic value, and failure cases. This study evaluated repeated multi-model OCG-PRES guided LLM scoring for short-answer assessment. The analysis used 996 SciEntsBank responses. GPT, DeepSeek, and Qianwen each scored every response across three independent runs using five OCG-PRES dimensions: concept coverage, relation accuracy, reasoning completeness, contradiction control, and domain relevance. Scores were evaluated against official binary and five-category labels and compared with non-LLM baselines based on answer length, Jaccard keyword overlap, TF-IDF cosine similarity, and a combined traditional logistic model. Repeated-run reliability was high for all models, with ICC(3,k) = .977 for GPT, .992 for DeepSeek, and .981 for Qianwen. DeepSeek was the most stable across runs. GPT showed the strongest official-label alignment by AUC (.909), while Qianwen was stricter, with higher precision but lower recall under the fixed threshold = 3.0 rule. OCG-PRES scores followed expected diagnostic patterns across five official categories and outperformed all non-LLM baselines in AUC and F1. Repeated multi-model OCG-PRES scoring provides reliability, validity, and diagnostic evidence for LLM-assisted short-answer scoring. The findings support cautious, evidence-based use as a scoring support tool rather than a replacement for human judgement.