Disentangling Internal and Forced Climate Variability with Convolutional Neural Networks using Multivariate Fields

RESUMO

Long-term climate data exhibit variations composed of internal and forced components. Internal variability arises from natural processes that could occur within a stable climate. Forced variability, on the other hand, reflects climate changes induced, for example, by anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. Accurately distinguishing between these types of variability is crucial for attributing climate fluctuations and understanding internal variability processes and impacts. In this study, we apply a U-Net convolutional network, a model commonly used in computer vision, to separate forced and internal climate variability from 1950 to 2022 using a multi-model dataset. The dataset includes multiple fields from five single-model initial-condition large ensembles. Cross-validation is conducted by training the U-Net using the data from the ensembles of four models, leaving out the data from one model to assess performance. Validation results yield errors ranging from 0.1°C to 0.4°C for the forced variability of local-scale monthly surface air temperature, which is no more than half the magnitude of external forcing. The U-Net achieves better performance than a simple approach based on a fourth-order polynomial trend for estimating forced variability. The error is mainly due to insufficient sampling and poor agreement among the models, as the U-Net underestimates the warming for the model with the highest transient climate sensitivity during validation. Performance is lower for variables like sea-level pressure and precipitation because of their low ratio of forced to internal variability. This framework might be enhanced by incorporating a larger multi-model dataset in the training and validation.