Data-Driven Generator Transient Prediction for Digital Twin Decision Support

RESUMO

This paper develops a calibrated transient forecasting surrogate model for generator digital twin (DT) decision support that evaluates planned active- and reactive power load commands before they are applied. The proposed event-conditioned Hankel Dynamic Mode Decomposition with Control (Hankel-DMDc) model combines delay-coordinate lifting, command-event memory features, and an event-weighted Hankel basis so that sparse load-transition dynamics influence the reduced representation and fitted dynamics. This design targets intervals where voltage/frequency deviations and recovery behavior determine whether a candidate load command keeps the system within acceptable limits. To provide operator-facing confidence information, a split-conformal calibration layer is applied to the frozen surrogate model to form event-conditioned joint prediction bands for voltage and frequency. The experimental results show event-window root-mean-square errors of 1.058 V and 0.155 Hz. For a nominal 90% target, the bands attain 90.17% pointwise joint voltage-frequency coverage, with mean band widths of 3.55 V and 0.566 Hz. A 50-s open-loop rollout is computed in 181 ms on a single CPU core, approximately 280 times faster than real time, with forecast accuracy evaluated over horizons up to 5 s. These results demonstrate a computationally efficient advisory framework for generator DTs that combines transient prediction with calibrated uncertainty.