Forecast-Ensemble-Based Active Binary-Threshold Query Design for Interval Data Assimilation

RESUMO

Data assimilation estimates the evolving state of a dynamical system by combining model forecasts with observations. While many conventional methods assume point-valued measurements, practical sensing systems may instead provide coarse information such as binary, ordinal, inequality, or interval-valued reports. Interval Data Assimilation (IDA) provides a principled framework for assimilating such information, but assumes that the observations to be assimilated are specified in advance. In many sensing settings, however, both where to query and what inequality to ask can be chosen, while only a limited number of queries can be issued. This raises a new observation-design problem: how should informative inequality queries be selected from the forecast uncertainty before their responses are known? We propose \emph{Active Query Design for Interval Data Assimilation} (AQD-IDA), which uses the forecast ensemble to design binary threshold queries prior to the IDA update. AQD-IDA treats both the observation target and the threshold defining the inequality as design variables, thereby allowing the assimilation system to determine not only where to observe but also what question to ask. We develop query-selection criteria that account for forecast uncertainty, redundancy among queries, and anticipated reduction in posterior uncertainty. Experiments on Lorenz--96 and a spherical quasi-geostrophic model show that adaptive query design improves assimilation accuracy under a fixed binary-query budget, with joint observation-target--threshold selection outperforming fixed or separately designed queries. These results demonstrate that actively designing the information supplied to data assimilation can substantially increase the value of coarse observations.