The Periodically Correlated Components of Measles in New York City using the Variable Band-pass Periodic Block Bootstrap

RESUMO

Measles, a highly contagious, deadly virus, is at risk of losing its eradication status in the Unites States. Understanding the pattern, including seasonality, of measles could provide great benefit for forecasting, prevention, and public health preparedness as the virus re-emerges. The novel Variable Band-pass Periodic Block Bootstrap (VBPBB), which suppresses noise and interfering signals, is more efficient and statistically powerful to find periodic components compared to other existing methods. Using this method, we have found several significant periodic components in historical New York City measles cases which other methods were incapable of identifying. These findings give us a reusable method for understanding measles and other diseases and greater insight into what may occur should measles vaccine rates continue to fall.