Multi-dimensional Bias in Modeling Multi-dimensional Preferences: Evaluating the Ability of Synthetic Agents to Replace Human Participants in Conjoint Experiments

RESUMO

Despite growing interest in using LLMs to add robustness or reduce data-collection costs in survey experiments, their efficacy in conjoint design---an increasingly popular method in political science---remains underexplored. This paper addresses that gap by investigating whether synthetic agents can reproduce the multi-dimensional human preference patterns that conjoint is designed to capture. It replicates published conjoint studies and compares the results generated by synthetic agents with original human data along three dimensions: representational correspondence, inferential correspondence, and procedural stability. Our analysis evaluates the alignment of choice distributions as well as the statistical and substantive similarity of estimates, and the results are uneven across these dimensions and studies replicated. This implies that the validity of synthetic participants should be considered claim-dependent and hierarchical. Reproducing a figure or obtaining strong sign agreement is evidence of similar aggregate outputs, but not enough to support replacing human respondents. Our results suggest that the discipline as a whole must first map this innovation's boundaries across various levels before considering synthetic agents a robust substitute for human samples.